Over the past week, the European Commission, through both its annual agricultural outlook conference, as well as its recommendations to member states on the development of CAP national strategic plans, outlined its future vision for farming across Europe.

This vision points to a clear shift in EU farm policy towards achieving the objectives of the EU Green Deal, with little or no consideration to the likely economic or social implications of these policies on Irish and European farmers.

The Commission published its 30-page report this week outlining its recommendations to Ireland on the development of their CAP strategic plan, effectively Ireland’s roadmap for implementing the next phase of CAP.

The report contains 14 focus analysis sections, with just one of those focusing directly on supporting farm incomes. Even more concerning, the Commission also provides specific analysis on how each member state currently measures up relative to Green Deal objectives along with an outline of their 2030 targets.

The emphasis on sustainability by our Irish and European policymakers is understandable

These include six areas ranging from pesticide use to organic farming to rural broadband availability but, almost incredibly, there are no targets set for farm level profitability, viability or economic performance.

The emphasis on sustainability by our Irish and European policymakers is understandable and it was well-signposted that the next iteration of CAP policy would have a strong focus on this. However, what is most disappointing is the narrow emphasis that the proposals have, with environmental sustainability almost the sole focus.

For any business or economy to be truly sustainable, it also needs to address social and economic sustainability, along with environmental sustainability.

While admirable, even the most environmentally sustainable businesses cannot survive in the medium-term if they are not profitable.

In the real world, businesses that decide to fundamentally change their business model will only do so after detailed analysis ensuring their new proposed model is profitable and economically sustainable.

Any well-run business also knows that only businesses that can prosper financially will thrive beyond the current generation; otherwise, the business will cease to exist with the exit of the current generation – in other words it will not be socially sustainable.

On the current proposed policy trajectory, European policymakers have given little or no consideration to the future economic sustainability of Irish and European farmers.

While admirable, even the most environmentally sustainable businesses cannot survive in the medium-term if they are not profitable

This is confirmed by the remarkable position we currently find ourselves where the only detailed economic analysis competed of the EU Green Deal is by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). This analysis points to a 16% drop in European farm incomes, should Europe decide to adopt its Green Deal targets and others do not follow suit.

Artificial nitrogen

In a signpost to the likely implications for Irish farm profitability, recent analysis by Teagasc signalled that a reduction in the use of artificial nitrogen could impact profitability on beef and dairy farms by 10% to 12%. Therefore, it is absolutely imperative that a full economic analysis of the impact of the Green Deal is completed both at national and European level.

In looking to the future, it is perhaps regrettable that policymakers at Irish and European level did not give further consideration to the origins of CAP.

Agreed as part of the Treaty of Rome in 1957, Article 39 outlined the objectives of CAP.

These objectives very much focused on both food security and farm incomes.

The article outlined a core objective of CAP was “to ensure a fair standard of living for the agricultural population, particularly by the increasing of the individual earnings of persons engaged in agriculture”.

In looking to the future, it is perhaps regrettable that policymakers at Irish and European level did not give further consideration to the origins of CAP

With regard to agricultural policy, it also outlined that ‘due account shall be taken of the need to make the appropriate adjustments gradually’.

It is regrettable that current policymakers do not share the foresight of their policy-making predecessors as the current CAP reform proposals do not take any account of these aspirations. The Green Deal objectives may well be achieved but, unless we fully consider the associated economic implications, it will have a permanent irreparable financial and social cost on Irish and European farmers.