The first half of 2018 will forever be remembered as one of the most challenging spring planting and growing seasons. The consequences of the late spring followed by prolonged dry conditions are now being realised as the harvest progresses. So far, average winter crop yields are back, while spring crop yields are likely to be significantly reduced.
Ireland’s total cereal area has reduced by 8,500ha, but this figure is becoming even bigger as crops continue to be harvested for wholecropped silage. The estimated area of winter wheat and barley which has been wholecropped stands at between 7,000ha and 9,000ha. Spring wholecropped area remains unknown as it is ongoing.
A combination of these factors means that the Irish grain harvest could amount to a total of 1.7 million tonnes (Mt), down from a 2.3Mt harvest in 2017.
Ireland’s feed imports
Feed demand has increased by 28% for the first half of 2018 when compared with the same period last year. This is due to exceptional demand arising from the spring and summer fodder shortages.
Imports are up on virtually every main feed source in an attempt by millers to satisfy demand (see Table 1).
This increase in demand is anticipated to continue into winter, with the Irish Grain and Feed Association recently claiming that it is anticipating a 70% increase in winter feed demand. This equates to an additional 2Mt of feed.
European-wide problems
The difficult growing season experienced through the spring and summer hasn’t just been confined to Ireland. A cold, wet and late start to spring across the EU28 meant that crop planting was delayed in many key grain-growing countries.
A period of drought across the region has since put pressure on both grain yields and fodder supply. The effects of the drought, particularly across northern Europe, are contributing to an anticipated 16.6Mt reduction in grain production on 2017, bringing the anticipated EU28 harvest to 290.6Mt.
European countries are now competing for key raw ingredients to feed its livestock populations due to fodder supply issues.
The EU now finds itself in a situation where European countries are competing for key raw ingredients to feed its livestock populations due to fodder supply issues.
Cereals: wheat production in the EU28 is set to take a significant hit, with production forecasts now 2.4% below the five-year average, below 140Mt, and experience suggests that this situation will disimprove further. The most adversely affected EU wheat yields are in Baltic countries and across northern and central Europe. For example, Sweden’s wheat crop is estimated to be back around 40% this year.
Maize: conversely, current reports suggest that EU28 maize crops are looking good with the total grain maize harvest now forecasted at 62.1Mt. Abundant rainfall in the main grain-producing countries in southern, central, eastern and southeastern Europe has favoured the crop. Maize yield forecasts for Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria have been revised upwards, while the French yield forecast remains above the five-year average. However, forage maize is said to be hurting badly in some northern European countries.
Global grain supply
Pressure on crops as a result of weather problems hasn’t just been confined to Europe. Challenging growing weather across key growing regions is expected to curb total global grain (wheat, maize and coarse grains) production in 2018/19 to a three-year low of 2,059Mt.
World wheat production for 2018/19 is currently set to fall to a five-year low of 721Mt, down 37Mt from 2017. This follows significant downgrades to crop prospects in countries such as Russia, US and Australia, as well as the EU. Reductions are also expected for crops like barley, oats and rye.
An anticipated increase in the global maize harvest, which will bring total production up to 1,052.2Mt, is largely dependent on a recovery in output potential in South America. However, planting for 2018/19 is still some months away.
As supplies tighten, and with continued growth in grain consumption, it is expected that carryover stock will be reduced to the lowest level in four years (see Table 2).
Read more
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The first half of 2018 will forever be remembered as one of the most challenging spring planting and growing seasons. The consequences of the late spring followed by prolonged dry conditions are now being realised as the harvest progresses. So far, average winter crop yields are back, while spring crop yields are likely to be significantly reduced.
Ireland’s total cereal area has reduced by 8,500ha, but this figure is becoming even bigger as crops continue to be harvested for wholecropped silage. The estimated area of winter wheat and barley which has been wholecropped stands at between 7,000ha and 9,000ha. Spring wholecropped area remains unknown as it is ongoing.
A combination of these factors means that the Irish grain harvest could amount to a total of 1.7 million tonnes (Mt), down from a 2.3Mt harvest in 2017.
Ireland’s feed imports
Feed demand has increased by 28% for the first half of 2018 when compared with the same period last year. This is due to exceptional demand arising from the spring and summer fodder shortages.
Imports are up on virtually every main feed source in an attempt by millers to satisfy demand (see Table 1).
This increase in demand is anticipated to continue into winter, with the Irish Grain and Feed Association recently claiming that it is anticipating a 70% increase in winter feed demand. This equates to an additional 2Mt of feed.
European-wide problems
The difficult growing season experienced through the spring and summer hasn’t just been confined to Ireland. A cold, wet and late start to spring across the EU28 meant that crop planting was delayed in many key grain-growing countries.
A period of drought across the region has since put pressure on both grain yields and fodder supply. The effects of the drought, particularly across northern Europe, are contributing to an anticipated 16.6Mt reduction in grain production on 2017, bringing the anticipated EU28 harvest to 290.6Mt.
European countries are now competing for key raw ingredients to feed its livestock populations due to fodder supply issues.
The EU now finds itself in a situation where European countries are competing for key raw ingredients to feed its livestock populations due to fodder supply issues.
Cereals: wheat production in the EU28 is set to take a significant hit, with production forecasts now 2.4% below the five-year average, below 140Mt, and experience suggests that this situation will disimprove further. The most adversely affected EU wheat yields are in Baltic countries and across northern and central Europe. For example, Sweden’s wheat crop is estimated to be back around 40% this year.
Maize: conversely, current reports suggest that EU28 maize crops are looking good with the total grain maize harvest now forecasted at 62.1Mt. Abundant rainfall in the main grain-producing countries in southern, central, eastern and southeastern Europe has favoured the crop. Maize yield forecasts for Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria have been revised upwards, while the French yield forecast remains above the five-year average. However, forage maize is said to be hurting badly in some northern European countries.
Global grain supply
Pressure on crops as a result of weather problems hasn’t just been confined to Europe. Challenging growing weather across key growing regions is expected to curb total global grain (wheat, maize and coarse grains) production in 2018/19 to a three-year low of 2,059Mt.
World wheat production for 2018/19 is currently set to fall to a five-year low of 721Mt, down 37Mt from 2017. This follows significant downgrades to crop prospects in countries such as Russia, US and Australia, as well as the EU. Reductions are also expected for crops like barley, oats and rye.
An anticipated increase in the global maize harvest, which will bring total production up to 1,052.2Mt, is largely dependent on a recovery in output potential in South America. However, planting for 2018/19 is still some months away.
As supplies tighten, and with continued growth in grain consumption, it is expected that carryover stock will be reduced to the lowest level in four years (see Table 2).
Read more
Watch: Australia's current drought is the worst drought since 1964
Grain report: falling wheat estimates continue to drive prices
International grain markets: wheat futures continue to strengthen
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