One of the big winners from Brexit in the UK has been the advertising industry. The latest campaign on the go is to warn people engaged with the EU that change is coming and how important it is to get ready. The difficulty is that while most people are aware that change is coming, the problem is that nobody is in a position yet to say exactly what that change will be. Meanwhile engagement between the UK government and the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) seems to have broken down, with the Prime Minister Boris Johnson pulling out of addressing the representitive body's annual conference this week.

Decision time

The negotiations between the UK and EU have now entered the endgame and an agreement or breakdown is imminent. Either way the issue won’t be closed at the end of the year, rather it will rumble on indefinitely as industry grapples with dealing with whatever barriers are built.

The one issue that seems certain at this point is the requirement for traders to have customs declarations and health certificate al consignments that include products of animal origin. This also makes a level of inspection inevitable at the point of entry to both the UK and EU which will cause delays.

The reality is that on the UK side, the infrastructure isn’t fully in place to accommodate a level of checking comparable to what took place prior to the single market coming into effect in 1993. In practical terms to facilitate movement of goods transport, an element of flexibility will be required in the early stages of next year when it comes to enforcement.

No deal

The other issue is what if there is no deal at all? That will mean tariffs and unprecedented disruption to trade. It will also have horrendous consequences for other sectors, especially the agriculture and motor trades and again the likely practical outcome is a resumption of discussions on a trade deal sooner rather than later as the consequences of a no deal outcome become apparent. This is why the position outlined by Foreign Affairs and Defence Minister, Simon Coveney in last week’s Irish Farmers Journal webinar on holding market share in the UK is so relevant.

UK trade deals

Much has been made about the likely impact of the US Presidential election on trade discussions with the UK. From a farming perspective it will involve some flexibility by the UK on acceptance of hormone treated beef or chlorine washed chicken. The more likely trade deals for the UK are with Australia and New Zealand, both of which are huge exporters of agricultural produce and potential competition for Irish dairy, beef and lamb in the UK.

Overall, in either Ireland or the UK, getting Brexit ready means being ready to have customs documentation completed and health certification. Everything else including tariffs remains to be negotiated and only when it is will traders properly know the terms of business from 1 January.