One year ago this week, the price I reported for dry spot wheat was €242/t. This week, the equivalent price for spot wheat (where it is available) is around €422/t – that is €180/t higher than this time last year.

In that same week last year, the price on offer for dry wheat for November 2021 was €205/t – the equivalent price for November 2022 is around €360/t this week.

These price numbers lie behind the changes that have taken place in international grain markets and reflect the increasing costs of feed.

Jumps in MATIF

MATIF futures prices closed at €344.25/t last Friday, up over €23/t in that week. On Tuesday of this week, the same market position closed at €364.50/t, which is up another €20/t this week at the point of writing on Wednesday morning.

These price increases were accompanied by even greater increases in nearby futures positions.

War-related supply issues are unquestionably a factor, but not much has changed in that regard in recent weeks.

It is also interesting to note that November MATIF oilseed rape closed on Tuesday at €816/t, which is up almost €50/t on two weeks ago. This is primarily affected by the concerns over sunflower oil availability in the coming months and years.

Supply perceived as tight

Tightening global availability of grains arising from the Black Sea conflict and its implications for this and future years have become a major driver of sentiment and prices over the past week or more.

Reports suggest that big importers, such as Egypt and other north African and Middle East countries, are relying even more on Russian wheat because of the difficulties accessing Ukrainian wheat.

Further sanctions could have significant implications in this regard.

Last week’s WASDE report in the US tightened the overall global wheat balance and this acted as a driver for markets since then.

While the WASDE report eased the global maize balance, markets for new-crop maize have continued to strengthen since the start of January last.

Native prices

Price sentiment, especially for new-crop, is stronger again this week on the back of higher futures market prices.

This is more so for new-crop than old-crop, with spot wheat up about €5/t and trading in the €420 to €425/t range. Spot barley is higher at €425 to €430/t.

New-crop prices are up, with wheat quoted in the €355 to €365/t range, thus narrowing the gap between old- and new-crop prices. New-crop barley is in the €345 to €355/t range.