Grain futures prices continued to slide over the past week and the fall is also reflected in physical prices.

While MATIF December wheat increased slightly from last Monday week’s close of €343.25/t, it lost those gains and more before it closed last Friday at €328.25/t.

It picked up a bit again on Monday of this week to close at €335.75/t, but it fell again on Tuesday to close at €322/t.

It is harvest time and harvest pressure is real, with each price drop now greater than any intermittent gain.

These drops take wheat back close to the price levels that applied prior to the invasion of Ukraine.

There has been no change to the fundamentals of supply and demand relative to a month ago, but there are more question marks around total global demand.

Shipments from Ukraine

The downward price movement last week was most likely prompted by increased optimism around grain shipments out of Ukraine.

Harvest pressure is now a factor for wheat and the US Chicago December price is now back to the levels that applied prior to the invasion of Ukraine.

Prices in the US are also being influenced by the stronger dollar, as well as a level of fund selling ahead of the holiday weekend in the US.

Maize pressures

Maize prices in Chicago are now gone below the December price levels that applied prior to the invasion.

This may have been influenced by international factors, but it was also affected by the US acreage estimates announced last week.

The area in the estimate was slightly higher than had been anticipated earlier and this acted to decrease supply concerns and prices.

More acres is taken to mean more tonnes, but US weather will continue to be influential in the market as the crop heads into the critical pollination phase.

Maize is particularly sensitive to moisture and temperature stresses during flowering.

It is also worth noting that Brazil’s maize output estimate was increased by one market analyst last week. This increases overall global maize supply, with an anticipated consequence for price.

Native prices

All prices are back this week, perhaps not as much as futures are, but not far off.

Nearby wheat is now in the €350 to €355/t bracket, with barley around €345 to €350/t.

New-crop dry wheat is back to around €335 to €340/t, while dry barley is more at €325 to €330/t. November maize is now also back around €325/t ex-port.