Australian beef output is set to expand by 7% this year, increasing the risk of greater shipments onto the British market.

Such a move would inevitably result in tougher competition for Irish beef exports to Britain.

The latest quarterly outlook from Rabobank forecasts an expansion in beef production in both Brazil and Australia, with output in the EU and the US set to decline.

Australia’s beef herd is projected to reach almost 29m head in 2023 and could be within touching distance of 30m head next year. This is the highest level since the 1970s.

While China is expected to take much of the increased beef volumes from Brazil and Australia, Rabobank cautioned that demand from the Asian powerhouse could slow and possibly decline as 2023 progresses.

Such a development could potentially push more beef towards Britain and the EU, where beef output is forecast to fall by around 4% this year.

Under its recent trade agreement with the UK, Australia’s tariff-free beef quota for Britain will build from 35,000t per year to 170,000t by 2037.

While beef industry sources believed Australian volumes into Britain would take time to build, the twin factors of increased output and slower than anticipated demand in China could drive more product onto UK supermarket shelves.

Such a development would not be good news for Irish or British farmers. Last year Irish beef exports to Britain were worth €1.1bn.

Meanwhile, there is growing expectation of a trade deal being agreed between the EU and Australia.

Australia’s trade minister Don Farrell met senior European Commission officials last week.

Meanwhile, Australia’s assistant minister for trade, Tim Ayres, told The Australian newspaper that an EU trade deal was “pretty close”.

The expectation is that a trade deal could be completed by the end of the summer – despite opposition from the EU’s farm sector, and France.