While green diesel prices had readjusted by as much as 5c/l, or 4% over the past month, prices now appear to be creeping in the wrong direction yet again.

This week, as we went to press, prices of €1.15/l to €1.18/l (including VAT) were being quoted for bulk quantities of green diesel or Marked Gas Oil (MGO), as it’s otherwise known.

Price increases have been marginal so far but are linked to rising crude oil prices as a result of tensions across the Middle East, which have instilled uncertainty within international oil markets and what may happen next.

A number of suppliers noted that remaining stocks of green diesel are selling at €1.15/l. However, new stock is pricing between €1.17/l and €1.18/l.

Last week, the Government announced that carbon tax had increased as part of Budget 2024, increasing by €7 per tonne of C02 emitted from €48.50/t to €56/t.

This breaks down to a 2.5c/l increase in diesel prices which is set to come into effect next April.

Meanwhile, it was also announced in the budget that the final re-instalment of the fuel excise, initially expected on 31 October has been deferred until next year.

The figure, which amounts to 3c/l on green diesel, will now be restored in two separate instalments, on 1 April and 1 August 2024.

Looking back on diesel prices in recent months, green diesel prices bottomed out at 89c/l as the challenging 2023 harvest got under way in July.

Soon after, prices had risen to this year’s highs of €1.20/l by the middle of September, a significant price difference of 31c/l in as little as two months.

Crude oil

Crude oil has experienced a rather unstable October so far.

Earlier in the month, Brent Crude dipped as much as $10/barrel over a five-day period.

At this point, the international oil benchmark was trading around $84/barrel.

The rapid price drop was driven by a number of factors, including the US experiencing a demand drop in the three months to the end of September, the lowest level experienced in 22 years.

Weakening demand in India and China were also believed to be influential factors in the sudden drop.

For context, even at $84/barrel, prices were still up $12/barrel on the 12-month low experienced last June.

However, the lull was short-lived with prices now back up around $89-90/barrel as we went to print on Tuesday. Prices jumped by as much as 6% last Friday as a result of the current geo-political risk factors, going from $86 to $90.9/barrel.

In order to try and counteract Crude prices, the US and Venezuelan governments are said to be brokering a deal this week to ease US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry in order to try and increase supply and help steady up prices.