The EU is not expecting a recovery in pig exports to the Chinese market in 2023, following a cut of 50% in exports in 2022.
Overall, EU pigmeat exports fell by 16% last year, with the 50% reduction driving the cut.
The fall-off in exports to China was partly compensated by diverting exports to other destinations like Japan (+23%), the Philippines (+21%), South Korea (+12%) and Australia (+19%).
The EU’s short-term outlook states that pigmeat exports may decrease further by 3% in 2023.
Last year, pigmeat production fell in the majority of EU member states, falling on average by 5.6%.
According to the December 2022 livestock survey, the number of breeding sows decreased by half a million head in 2022 (-4.6%), following a decline of 370,000 head in 2021 (-3.6%).
In 2023, it is assumed that the African Swine Fever situation will not change dramatically and that this will continue to trigger strong responses in affected countries as well as among trade partners, the outlook stated.
EU poultry production is forecast to grow by around 1.1% in 2023.
The outlook states that demand for poultry benefits from general inflation, as consumers replace more expensive meats (beef, pigmeat, etc) with cheaper poultry meat.
This could further support EU poultry consumption growth in 2023, with an increase of 2.5% forecast.
Last year, EU poultry production fell by 1.7%. This was driven by declines in poultry production across France, Italy and Germany.