Grain prices continue to gyrate around evolving production estimates and weather concerns. While there are an increasing number of weather issues, few are yet at the point where they cannot be altered to affect output favourably. So they are still more of a talking point rather than a market force.

The only issue that has been confirmed to a limited degree is that wheat quality in the US is lower than in previous years following the early dryness and then, latterly, wet conditions. While the sample size may be limited, there is no much talk about this wheat not making milling quality which was the main concern.

Wet continues to cause difficulties in the US midwest and it may yet impact on the area planted to soyabeans there. It seems that the fall in soyabean price, coupled with difficulties getting farm credit, may also decrease planted area in Brazil for the coming season.

Canada continues to be hit mainly by dryness with crops in the main wheat growing region of Saskatchewan suffering particularly badly. Co-op estimates of German wheat production have been revised downwards by 1.1Mt compared to last month, also due to dryness. Elsewhere in the EU, this month’s MARS crop report has revised all its output estimates downwards due to a range of conditions described as unfavourable for crop growth.

Native prices are broadly similar again this week, with spot wheat back about a euro in the €175 to €178/t bracket while November is up by the same amount, trading between €180 and €182/t. Spot barley is broadly similar, with prices ranging €155 to €160/t. New-crop barley is currently trading around €160 to €162/t to the trade.