Beef throughput for the first seven months of the year has passed the 1m head mark and set a new milestone for the number of cattle processed in the first half of the year. As detailed in Figure 1, the kill for the first seven months of the year has increased by a massive 206,348 head over throughput levels recorded in 2012.

Throughput is also significantly ahead of 2017, with 37,059 more cattle processed.

The higher numbers are stemming from a combination of an expanding cattle herd, underpinned by expansion in the national dairy herd, and in recent weeks by farmers moving cattle in a bid to deal with drought conditions and conserve feed. The latter accounted for in the region of 16,000 head of the additional kill over the last eight weeks, when compared with corresponding throughput for 2017.

Table 1 details a breakdown of the kill by category of animal for the latest weekly kill and also tracks the differences in throughput for the first seven months of the year. The higher throughput in 2018 is driven primarily by heifers with 13,866 head more processed.

This is followed by 10,514 young bulls, which reflects a switchover by specialist finishers to bull beef – with the production system delivering significant benefits in terms of physical and financial performance. The cow kill is running 8,995 head above the corresponding week in 2017, with a closer look at throughput showing that the majority of this increase materialised in the last eight weeks. Reports pointed to much higher numbers of cows coming direct from dairy farms and while there were additional dairy cows processed, a major spike is not supported by the numbers analysed.

Forecast throughput

It is hard to accurately predict throughput levels for the coming weeks. A recovery in grass supplies has significantly reduced the immediate pressure on finishers to move stock. The drafting pattern will be influenced by growth rates in the coming weeks and the opportunity to replenish fodder reserves. There are already some reports of dairy farmers under great pressure culling empty cows on scanning, but if grass supplies recover this could be balanced by farmers milking on to try and maximise the milk cheque.

Reports suggest that there have been more cattle slaughtered at a younger age this year, which in theory could leave supplies for the back end tighter.

The contrasting view is that more producers introduced high levels of concentrates to underpin performance during the drought and will now continue feeding, while others may consider ad-lib feeding once animals are housed to conserve silage. A clearer picture will start to develop on the back of how growth rates perform in the coming weeks.