Wheat

Large areas of winter wheat across western and southern Europe could be at risk of winter kill if severe frost occurs. Due to the milder weather across most of Europe over winter, the acclimatisation of winter cereals to low temperatures has been restricted according to the latest EU MARS crop bulletin.

This means that winter wheat across parts of UK, France, Spain and Italy could be in danger if exposed to a severe frost event (<-12°C). Therefore, the Beast from the East could potentially raise wheat markets if the cold spell were to persist.

Maize

Further away from home, maize planting in Brazil's second-largest grain producing region, Mato Grosso, is significantly behind when compared with last year, according to Brazilian research body, Deral.

Just 16% of the expected area is planted, compared with 48% at the same time last year due to wetter than normal weather. This has both delayed the soya bean harvest and pushed back maize planting.

In addition to this, Argentina’s forecasted 2018 maize forecast has been slashed by five million tonnes as a result of ongoing drought. The projected crop from the world's third largest maize exporter was cut to 35mt from 40mt.

Soya beans

Argentina's soya bean production forecast has also been reduced as drought conditions linger. The current forecast is 47mt, down from the previous forecast of 50mt and 10.5mt below 2016/17 production levels.

In Brazil’s second largest soya bean producing state, Parana, soya bean harvesting has been delayed by excessive wet weather.

Europe

On the Euronext exchange (MATIF) in Paris, maize, wheat and oilseed futures all made gains over the last week.

Paris maize gained €1/t over the last week to finish yesterday's trade at €167.5/t.

Milling wheat for delivery in December recorded a modest gain of €2.3/t since last week to finish yesterday’s trade at €173.75/t.

Similarly, oilseed rape also recorded a modest gain, with Paris prices up €5.80/t since last week to €357.75/t by the close of business on Monday.

Chicago

Across the water, the Chicago grain market (CME) recoded rather large losses in soya bean and wheat markets while maize virtually remained static.

2018 futures now stand at $378.46/t and $193.64/t for November-delivered soya beans and December-delivered wheat, respectively, down $24.6 and $13.2 on last week.

Corn futures remained relatively static over the week, with contracts for December delivery up just $0.2 to $156.76/t.

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