Futures prices continued to creep upwards over the past week on the back of demand, with some concerns on crops still to be harvested.

Currency remains a factor. Wheat prices were further helped by the statement that Russia may have less to export than initially suggested. Production there is still put at record levels, but domestic demand is now forecast to consume even more of the bumper crop.

On the flip side, the October International Grains Council report further increased global grain production to an estimated 2,077 million tonnes, which is up 8Mt since the September estimate. Consumption is increased by 5Mt. Virtually all of the additional production comes from maize and most of that is expected to come from the Americas, with US maize production alone now put at 382.5Mt, from 345.5Mt last year. These figures combine to add further to global grain stocks, but futures markets appear relatively indifferent for the time being. But surplus will continue to weigh on the market.

Physical markets have followed futures prices, as the market has more buyers than sellers in the post-harvest lull. This may prove to be a selling opportunity, both in the near and longer term, but this can only be judged with hindsight.

Spot prices are in the €163 to €167/t range for wheat, with barley around €153 to €155/t. May prices are currently stronger at around €172 to €173/t for wheat and €158 to €160/t for barley. May oilseed rape is now around €395/t with around €390/t for new crop.