Soya prices surged by around £20/t early this week, as spot markets reacted to lower yield forecasts in North America.
Applying that price hike to the local feed trade, soya purchased on spot through local merchants would see prices in the region of £480/t to £490/t delivered on-farm.
As a result, the prospect of further discounts on ration prices for November appear to be weakening, with soya remaining overpriced relative to grain and other proteins.
In contrast, barley prices have been relatively static since late summer, with on-farm prices in the region of £230/t. Maize costs just over £240/t.
Soya hulls are close to £235/t on-farm, although some forecasts point to supplies becoming limited early next year. Citrus pulp is priced around £240/t on-farm, with beet pulp closing in on a price of £300/t.
The latest price increase for soya followed the US Department of Agriculture cutting its yield forecast by 1.1m tonnes.
However, there is potential the market will see a correction this winter, based on positive signals emerging in harvest forecasts from South America. Argentinian yields are on track for a 2mt, or 4%, increase on the previous year, with Brazilian soya yields set to rise 4.8%, equating to an additional 7.7mt.
Reduced cashflow on farms has dampened any interest in forward purchasing fertiliser for spring 2024.
With low demand, merchants are still carrying stocks purchased back in summer and offering deals in the region of £305 to £315/t for CAN. Price listings in Britain put similar nitrogen products around £340 to £380/t.