Global wheat prices rose again last week, pushed up by continued tight supplies, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).

International demand remains strong, with last week’s tenders including the world’s top importer, Egypt.

Russia’s export tax is set to rise again from 10 November to $69.90/t. The tax is calculated from export prices and is a factor in slowing exports from the country.

Slower exports from Russia are contributing to the squeeze in wheat availability. Last year, Russia was the world’s top exporter of wheat.

US prices

US maize prices also rose, due to rain delaying harvest of the 2021 crop and another week of high ethanol production.

Weekly ethanol production was the second highest on record, while stocks also fell. If sustained, this trend could tighten the US and global stocks.

More wet weather is also expected this week, which could also bring short-term support.

Australian harvest

The Australian harvest is under way in Queensland and New South Wales, with some localised harvest pressure starting to be seen. This could pick up as the harvest moves south.

Planting of 2022/23 winter crops in Europe has progressed well (MARS report). However, dry conditions are causing early concerns in both the US and Black Sea regions.

Weather for the 2021/22 South American maize crops remains a key driver. Rain this week will be welcome, but the forward outlook is uncertain, with La Niña reported to now be in force by the Rosario Grain Exchange.