There is little doubt that 2021 will be remembered kindly by the vast majority in the tillage sector, with good yields, good prices and generally good weather for all crops.

The ultimate wish for 2022 would have to be a repeat of that elusive trinity.

Who knows, perhaps we will see all three again, but there is one major additional negative already in the market – a huge escalation in costs, especially fertiliser.

While we will choose to hope that fertiliser prices will ease back in the spring, everything we see at the minute would suggest that this seems highly unlikely. This is certainly not a time for building non-essential stocks on farms.

Fertiliser alone would add an extra €300/ha to €500/ha to production cost if the same rates were used as in 2021 and there could be another €100/ha coming from the combination of increases in seed, chemicals, transport, diesel, contractor charges etc.

This is a massive increase in production costs and an erosion of potential profit.

It seriously questions the viability of planting low yielding acres this year, as the cost will have risen by €60-€70/t.

We have an idea where costs are going, but there is no guarantee on yield and even less on prices.

As of now, the prices available for the coming harvest are broadly similar to last year, equating to just under €220/t for green wheat and €210/t for green barley.

These are largely driven by maize price movements where global production is expected to be up but not to the point where prices will collapse.

However, anything that impacts on global cereal production will drive feed grain prices in one direction or the other.

On the opportunity side, high fertiliser prices may open opportunities for fodder crops if livestock farmers ease back on fertiliser, especially on silage ground.

So there may be some opportunities in that space for some growers to produce crops like maize and fodder beet, but only if there is a demand before planting.