Grain prices are ending the year at the low end of recent ranges in futures market in the US but prices in Europe remain broadly similar to recent months. The same is largely true of euro-based physical prices which now appear high relative to green prices last harvest. Both of the graphs to the right clearly show the price spike that occurred around harvest time which now leave grain in store appearing expensive.

The lower of the two graphs opposite shows the trends in grain prices delivered Belfast during 2018, alongside the price we use for spot wheat in the Republic. The lines show broadly similar price trends, with Belfast delivered wheat and barley alternating to the higher price at different times of the year.

The gap between the euro price in the south and the sterling price in the north does vary widely however, depending on the weekly fortunes of the relative currencies.

The big story of the year and especially the 2018/19 marketing season is the price of imported maize relative to native grains.

In euro terms, maize and wheat ex-store in the south alternated for top spot during the first 4-5 months of the year. However, since 25 May maize price has been lower than wheat (and barley) and the price gap has grown substantially since then.

The current price differential of at least €35/t is acting to flood the country with maize, with imports supposedly up 40% in the first half of 2018.

It is, therefore, understandable that it is now difficult to sell wheat and barley against this price backdrop.

The price differential will have to close to correct this but we must wait to see if native grain drops or if maize price rises.