Irish milk production has increased in volume from 4.78bn litres in 2009 to 7.98bn litres in 2019, representing a 67% increase in volume.

The value of Irish dairy exports has doubled, in line with a 50% increase in milk production since EU quotas were removed, from €2bn to €4bn. With the additional milk supply, applications of processing milk have changed.

The UK is our single largest export market, accounting for approximately €1bn or 23% of total Irish dairy exports in 2019.

Cheese is the main Irish dairy export to the UK, accounting for 41% of total sales – 81,000t of this is cheddar.

Butter accounts for just over a quarter of Irish dairy exports to the EU and skimmed milk powder (SMP) is at 12%.

While the UK will remain a key market, its relative importance is in decline – in 2015 the UK accounted for 32% of dairy exports.

Beyond the UK and EU

Diversification into Asian markets will help to mitigate some of the long-term risks associated with Brexit for Irish dairy farmers and help meet the demand for dairy in Asian markets. Recent EU trade deals with Japan and Vietnam will make Irish dairy exports more competitive and encourage further growth.

The Irish dairy industry has been investing in production capacity for other cheese types, particularly mozzarella

Cheese is a key export to Asian markets and Ireland is traditionally associated with cheddar production. However, the Irish dairy industry has been investing in production capacity for other cheese types, particularly mozzarella.

It has been reported that mozzarella is in over-capacity at present – two factors being the growth in the number and scale of the producers and the fact that much of the capacity is in the US.

Role of pizza

Mozzarella is the cheese that is predominantly used in pizza and western Europe and North America dominate the world market for pizza with over 70% of sales.

\ Philip Doyle

The US is the world’s largest consumer of pizza and therefore of mozzarella, representing up to 60% of global mozzarella consumption (1.76m tonnes). A projected 0.7% growth in demand up to 2023 will be met by domestic production.

The Asia/Pacific Island region is forecasting demand growth of 3.8% (during 2018 to 2023) from the region’s three leading importers of mozzarella: Japan, South Korea and China.

The world pizza market is forecast to grow by 4.6% from 2018 to be worth $154.8bn in 2023

Global consumption of mozzarella is forecast to grow to around 3.3m tonnes by 2023 – that’s a forecasted growth rate of 1.7% per year – driven by the rising use of industrial mozzarella for non-pizza use, as well as pizza sales from retail and foodservice.

The world pizza market is forecast to grow by 4.6% from 2018 to be worth $154.8bn in 2023, with all continents showing strong growth. The North American market will grow by 3.9% to 53.8bn, while the Asia-Pacific market will increase by 7.4% to $13bn.

Japan

Japan is currently the largest consumer of mozzarella in Asia and import demand is forecast to reach 96,600t by 2023. Major international sporting events such as the Olympics, FIFA World Cup and the recent Rugby World Cup further increased the exposure to western diets and culture, with a corresponding growth in the demand for pizzas and therefore mozzarella.

Today, the sector in Japan is domestically supplied and dominated by the top-five pizza manufacturing companies: Meiji Holdings, Itoham Foods, NH Foods, Talona and Maruha Nichiro. These companies account for the majority of pizza sales.

China

The market for mozzarella in China, driven largely by pizza consumption, has its origins in the expansion of US pizza chain Pizza Hut. China imported 63,200t in 2018 and this is forecast to increase to 82,400t by 2023.

With US chains leading the expansion, the cheese offering on pizzas globally has tended to follow US trends rather than the more rustic Italian fresh mozzarella trend.

The three leading importers will continue to be Japan, South Korea and China

The US pizza phenomenon has been rolled out into international markets, making it a global standard in the way McDonald’s has done with burgers. China is also adopting new diets as its middle class continues to grow rapidly, which is also influencing the demand for mozzarella.

The three leading importers will continue to be Japan, South Korea and China. China is set to overtake South Korea to be the second-largest importer in the world, behind Japan. Collectively, it is forecast that the three leading countries will import over 250,000t of industrial mozzarella in 2023.

Other uses

While mozzarella is a product traditionally used in the pizza industry, it is increasingly used in non-pizza applications.

\ Philip Doyle

This is particularly true in some Asian markets, where innovative food operators are incorporating cheese into local or fusion cuisine.

South Korea, where mozzarella is increasingly being used in toppings, sauces and salad dishes, is a good example of this, with mozzarella now found on traditional shop menus.

Ireland’s position

The forecast demand for mozzarella is strong, but as with all global dairy markets, there are nuances and particularities to each market that the Irish dairy industry will need to navigate as supply comes on stream.

Understanding the markets and customers will be key to pre-empt and manage these product needs

Flavour, colour and functionality is key to cheese on pizza and other cheeses can substitute mozzarella to deliver on these.

Understanding the markets and customers will be key to pre-empt and manage these product needs. As pizza companies develop technology to drive the delivery market, so too does it drive the needs for greater functionality from cheese, as the pizza is not consumed immediately.

Price-conscious markets will seek to reduce cost by using analogue and processed cheese products, but Irish producers will prioritise the most suitable markets and partners.